Njengoba uMkhosi WaseNtwasahlobo usondela, ochwepheshe bezohwebo lwangaphandle sebezongena efasiteleni elibalulekile lonyaka —Ukuqala okunamandla kwekota yokuqala ka-2026. Ukuqala kabusha komsebenzi ngemva kweholide, ukugcwaliswa kabusha kwempahla kwamanye amazwe, ukwethulwa kwemikhiqizo emisha entwasahlobo ye-e-commerce, kanye namagagasi okuthengwa agxile ezimakethe ezisafufusa, kuhlanganiswe nokuhlelwa kabusha kweketanga lokuphakelwa komhlaba wonke, isidingo esikhulayo se-AI namandla amasha, kanye nezinguquko zesakhiwo emizileni yokuthumela kanye namanani empahla —ukukhetha izigaba zomkhiqizo ezifanele, ukuhlela isikhathi sokuhamba kwakho ngokunembile, nokuqinisekisa isikhala sempahla kusengaphambili kuzobeka ngqo ithoni yokusebenza konyaka..
I. 2026 Q1 Isimo Sokuhweba Kwangaphandle: Intuthuko Eqhubekayo Nokuthuthukiswa Kwesakhiwo
•Ukukhula Okujwayelekile: I-Goldman Sachs ibikezela ukuthi ukukhula okulinganiselwe kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-China (okuyi-USD) kuzofinyelela ku-5.6% ngo-2026, kanti umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ugcina ukukhula okungaphezu kuka-5%, okubonisa ukuqina okukhulu.
•Ukugxila Kwesakhiwo: Ukukhiqizwa kwemishini, izimboni zobuchwepheshe obuphezulu, amandla amasha, kanye nokuhweba nge-inthanethi okuwela imingcele kuyaqhubeka nokuhola; ukukhula kokuthunyelwa kwezimpahla kwamanye amazwe okuphakathi kanye nokwezimali kudlula kakhulu okwezimpahla zabathengi.
•Isimo Semakethe: I-ASEAN kuqala, iMpumalanga Ephakathi / iRussia / i-Afrika ikhula kakhulu, iYurophu ne-US zibonisa ukululama okuqhubekayo.
•Idatha Ebalulekile: Ngo-2025, inani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe laseShayina lafinyelela ku-RMB 26.99 trillion, okuwukwenyuka konyaka nonyaka okungu-6.1%; ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kokukhiqiza imishini kwafinyelela ku-RMB 16.03 trillion, okwenyuka ngo-9.2%, okwenza kube ngu-59.4% wenani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe.
•Izici Zokuthutha: Umthamo wokuthumela uphansi ngaphambi kweholide, ululama ngokushesha ngemva kwalokho; ukuguquguquka kwemizila yase-Asia-Europe/Mediterranean, izikhathi zokuhamba ezizinzile eziya eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia/Middle East.
II. Izigaba Eziyinhloko ze-Q1 ka-2026 Zokuqala Okuqinile
1. “Izimoto Ezintsha Ezintathu”: Injini Eyinhloko Yonyaka, Ukukhula Okukhulu Okuqhubekayo ku-Q1
Izimoto zikagesi (ama-EV), amabhethri e-lithium, kanye nezingxenye ze-photovoltaic (PV) zihlala ziyizinto ezikhuthaza ukukhula okukhulu kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe. Ukuvuselelwa kabusha kwamanye amazwe ngemva kwamaholide, kanye nesidingo esijulile senqubomgomo kanye nengqalasizinda.
Idatha Eyinhloko:
• Isilinganiso esiphelele sokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-"New Three" ngo-2025 sisondeleAma-RMB ayizigidigidi eziyi-1.3, aUkwanda okuphindwe ka-3.5 eminyakeni emi-5phezulu27.1%unyaka nonyaka.
•Izimoto Ezintsha Zamandla: Kufinyelelwe ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazweAmayunithi ayizigidi ezingu-2.315ezinyangeni zokuqala eziyi-11 zika-2025,+102.9%unyaka nonyaka; intengo yeyunithi emaphakathiAma-USD angu-20,000–30,000Inani lokuthumela ngaphandle lenyanga eyodwa likaDisemba+71.7%unyaka nonyaka.
•Amabhethri e-Lithium: Inani lokuthumela ngaphandle lika-2025Ama-RMB ayizigidigidi ezingama-570.86,+24.4%unyaka nonyaka; ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kukaJanuwari kuya kuSepthembaAma-USD ayizigidigidi ezingama-55.38,+26.8%unyaka nonyaka.
•I-Photovoltaics: Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kudlulileAma-RMB ayizigidigidi ezingama-200iminyaka emi-4 ilandelana; isidingo esigxile sokugcinwa kweziteshi zikagesi zaphesheya kwezilwandle ku-Q1.
Izimakethe Eziyinhloko: I-ASEAN, iMpumalanga Ephakathi, iRussia, iNyakatho Afrika, iNingizimu Melika
Amaphuzu Ayisihluthulelo Ezokuthutha:
•Ama-NEV: Imikhumbi ye-Ro-Ro / ama-flat racks, isimemezelo sezimpahla eziyingozi, amalayisense okuthumela kwamanye amazwe, ukuvunyelwa kwentela yendawo oya kuyo
•Amabhethri e-Lithium: UN38.3, isitifiketi sezimpahla eziyingozi, ukupakishwa kwenani elilinganiselwe, indawo ebekwe phambili yomugqa
•I-Photovoltaics: Umthwalo ogcwele wesitsha ngokuyinhloko, naka ifasitela lokulungisa isakhiwo samanani esaphulelo se-VAT
Isibikezelo sekota yokuqalaUkukhula konyaka nonyaka kugcinwe ku-25%–40%; isikhala esincane sesitsha siphakamisaukuvikela indawo ngaphambi kweholide.
2. I-Electronics kanye ne-ICT: I-AI-Driven, Strong Semiconductor Rebound (Clear High Growth)
Iqhutshwa amaseva e-AI, izikhungo zedatha, kanye nokuvuselelwa kabusha kwempahla ye-elekthronikhi yabathengi,amasekethe ahlanganisiwe, amakhompyutha, imishini yokuxhumana, kanye namaphaneli okubonisababhekene nokubuyela emuva okunamandla.
Idatha Eyinhloko:
• Inani lokuthunyelwa kwesekethe ehlanganisiwe likaDisemba 2025+47.7%unyaka nonyaka,ukudlula omakhalekhukhwini njengomkhiqizo omkhulu kunayo yonke othunyelwa kwamanye amazwe.
• Amazinga okukhula kwenyanga eyodwa kwamakhompyutha kanye nemishini yokuxhumana engenantambo afinyelelwe89.2%futhi66.9%ngokulandelana; ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwamaselula+41.2%.
• Ukungeniswa kwehadiwe ehlobene ne-AI e-US kukhule48.3%–89.2%, okukhuthaza ukukhula okuphezulu kokuthunyelwa kwe-ICT kwe-China.
Izimakethe Eziyinhloko: I-USA, iYurophu, iNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, iJapan, iNingizimu Korea
Amaphuzu Ayisihluthulelo Ezokuthutha: Impahla enenani eliphezulu ikhetha ukuthutha ngendiza/imikhumbi esheshayo, ukulawulwa kwezinga lokushisa kanye nomswakama, ukulandelela okugcwele, kanye nesiqinisekiso somonakalo ophansi.
Isibikezelo sekota yokuqala: Isizini ephezulu yokuthunyelwa kwezinto zikagesi; amanani entengo yendiza akhuphuka njalo ngoFebhuwari-Mashi; izinga lokukhula30%+.
3. Imishini Nokwakha Imikhumbi: Ukusilela Kwemisebenzi Okuqinile, Ukuthunyelwa Kwempahla Okuqinile Kakhulu
Imishini ejwayelekile, ama-motor, izinto zikagesi zasekhaya, kanye nokwakhiwa kwemikhumbibazuze ekuvuseleleni kwezimboni emhlabeni wonke kanye nokukhula okuphezulu kokusalela emuva kwama-oda, kanye nokulethwa okugxile ku-Q1.
Idatha Eyinhloko:
• Kufinyelelwe ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwemikhiqizo yemishini nekagesi ngo-2025Ama-RMB ayizigidigidi eziyi-12.07phezulu9.6%, ukubala60.5%kwenani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe.
• Izimpahla ezinkulu ezifanaimikhumbi, amajeneretha, amaphampu, ama-compressorkufake amaphuzu angu-0.4–1 emaphesenti ekukhuleni okuphelele kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe.
Izigaba Eziyinhloko: Amaphampu, ama-compressor, amajeneretha, ama-air conditioner asekhaya, imishini yokuwasha, iziqandisi zezentengiselwano, imikhumbi/amathangi emikhumbi
Izimakethe Eziyinhloko: I-ASEAN, iMpumalanga Ephakathi, i-Afrika, iNingizimu Melika, iYurophu
Amaphuzu Ayisihluthulelo Ezokuthutha: Ukuqinisa imithwalo emikhulu, ama-rack ayisicaba / ama-top avulekile, ukususwa kwempahla okuhlanganisiwe kanye nokuthutha ngamaloli.
Isibikezelo sekota yokuqala: Ukuqiniseka okuphezulu, izinkontileka eziningi zesikhathi eside; izinga lokukhula8%–12%, ifanele ukuhlelwa kwesikhala isikhathi eside.
4. Izinto Ezibalulekile Zokuhweba Nge-E-Commerce Ezinqamula Imingcele: Ukuqaliswa Komkhiqizo Omusha WaseNtwasahlobo + Ukusetshenziswa Kwamaholide, Ukukhula Okusheshayo Kwama-oda Amancane, Ashintsha Ngokushesha
Ukwethulwa kwemikhiqizo emisha yasentwasahlobo yaphesheya kwezilwandle, isizini yokubuyela esikoleni, ukuvuselelwa kwekhaya, kanye nemisebenzi yangaphandle, kuhlanganiswe nokukhula okuphezulu kwezentengiselwano ze-inthanethi eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, eRussia naseMpumalanga Ephakathi —izinto ezincane ezilula, izimpahla zabathengi ezihamba ngokushesha, imikhiqizo yasekhaya, kanye nezinto zikagesi ezincaneqhubeka nokubona amanani e-oda aqhumayo.
Idatha Eyinhloko:
• Isilinganiso sokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-e-commerce yaseShayina ngaphesheya kwemingcele kulindeleke ukuthi sifinyeleleAma-RMB ayizigidigidi ezingu-3.2ngo-2026, okubalwa28%kwenani eliphelele lokuthengiswa kwamanye amazwe.
• Imakethe ye-e-commerce yaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia izodlulaAma-USD ayizigidigidi eziyi-150ngo-2026, ngokukhula kwaminyaka yonke kwe15%Ukukhula kwezentengiselwano ze-inthanethi e-Indonesia22%, eNdiya17.6%.
• I-B2B e-commerce ewela imingcele ibiza cishe70%, ngokukhula okuphezulu kakhulu kune-B2C; umthamo wempahla yekota yokuqala+30%+inyanga nenyanga.
Izigaba EziyinhlokoIzidingo zansuku zonke zasekhaya, izinto zokugcina izinto, izinto zikagesi ezincane, izinto zasekhishini, ezokuzijabulisa zangaphandle, imishini yezemidlalo, izingubo zasentwasahlobo, izinto ezifuywayo, izesekeli ze-3C
Izimakethe Eziyinhloko: I-Southeast Asia (iTikTok Shop), iRussia, iMiddle East, i-e-commerce yendawo
Amaphuzu Ayisihluthulelo Ezokuthutha: Indawo yokugcina impahla yaphesheya kwezilwandle, amaphasela amancane anikezelwe emgqeni, isevisi ye-DDP, izikhathi zokuhamba ezizinzile, ukulahlekelwa okuphansi kokubuya.
Isibikezelo sekota yokuqala: Umthamo wempahla ye-e-commerce+30%+inyanga nenyanga; amanani entengo akhuphuka kancane kancane.
5. Izinto Ezibalulekile Zasebusika Nezimpahla Zabathengi Ezihamba Ngokushesha: Ifasitela Lokugcwalisa Izimpahla LaseRussia / EMpumalanga Ephakathi / EYurophu
UJanuwari kuya kuMashi kuseyisikhathi sokushisa eNyakatho Nenkabazwe. Isidingo se-imishini yokushisa, izindwangu zasekhaya ezifudumele, izingubo ezijiyile, kanye nezinto ezincane zikagesiisalokhu inamandla eRussia, eMpumalanga Yurophu, kanye nase-Asia Ephakathi.
Idatha Eyinhloko:
• Ukukhula kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe eRussia nase-Asia Ephakathi kudlule15%+izikhathi eziningana zilandelana; isidingo esiqinile sezinto zokushisa, izingubo zikagesi, amajakethi angaphansi.
• Ukukhula kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngo-2025 e-ASEAN11.1%, I-Latin America9.8%, i-Afrika13.7%; ukuqina okuqinile kwezimpahla zabathengi ezimakethe ezisafufusa.
Izigaba Eziyinhloko: Izifudumezi zikagesi, izingubo zokulala zikagesi, amajakethi aphansi, izingubo zokulala, izinto zikagesi ezincane ezijwayelekile zaseYurophu
Izidingo Eziyinhloko: Izitifiketi eziphelele (CE/EAC/GOST), ukuzivumelanisa ne-voltage, ukupakishwa okuhambisanayo
Amaphuzu Ayisihluthulelo Ezokuthutha: Izitimela zaseShayina-Russia, imizila ye-air shipping express, izikhathi zokuhamba ezizinzile zechweba lomhlaba.
Isibikezelo sekota yokuqala: Ukugcwalisa kabusha okugxilile kungakapheli inyanga eyodwa ngemuva kweholide; izimpahla ezingenaso isitifiketi esifanele zisengozini yokwenqatshwa.
6. Imikhiqizo Yezolimo Nokudla Okulungisiwe: Okuqaphela Impilo, Okulula, Nokukhula Okuphezulu e-ASEAN / eNyakatho Melika
Ukudla okulungisiwe, amaprotheni asekelwe ezitshalweni, imikhiqizo yasemanzini, itiye, kanye nemikhiqizo yezolimo ekhethekilezuza ezindleleni zokudla okunempilo kanye nesidingo sabathengi baseShayina baphesheya kwezilwandle. Uchungechunge olubandayo kanye nokuthobela imithetho kuyimingcele eyinhloko.
Idatha Eyinhloko:
• Ukuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo yezolimo kwamanye amazwe kugcina ukukhula okuqhubekayo5%–8%; isidingo sesitsha seketanga elibandayo+12%unyaka nonyaka.
• Imakethe yezilwane ezifuywayo emhlabeni wonke kulindeleke ukuthi isondeleAma-USD ayizigidigidi ezingama-500ngo-2026, ngokukhula kwaminyaka yonke kwe6%–8%; ukuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo yezilwane ezifuywayo kukhula ngasikhathi sinye.
Izigaba Eziyinhloko: Imikhiqizo yesoya, imikhiqizo yasemanzini, izitsha ezilungisiwe, itiye, amantongomane, izinongo
Izimakethe Eziyinhloko: I-ASEAN, i-USA, iCanada, i-Australia, iYurophu
Amaphuzu Ayisihluthulelo Ezokuthutha: Izitsha zochungechunge olubandayo, ukulandeleka kokulawulwa kokushisa, ukuhlolwa kwezimpahla kanye nokufakwa kwempahla yamasiko, ukuhambisana nelebula.
Isibikezelo sekota yokuqala: Ukukhula okuqhubekayo, amazinga aphezulu okuthenga kabusha, afanele ukuthunyelwa okuzinzile kwesikhathi eside.
III. Izimakethe Eziyinhloko Zekota Yokuqala Ka-2026 kanye Namathuba Omzila
1. I-ASEAN (Umlingani Omkhulu Wokuhweba)
• Izinga lokukhula elibikezelwe le9.4%ngo-2026.
• Izikhathi zokuhamba ezisheshayo, umthamo wempahla ongabizi kakhulu, ozinzile.
• Ukuthunyelwa okugxilile kweizimpahla zasekhaya, i-3C, imishini, izimpahla ze-e-commerce.
Izinzuzo:I-Sea-Rail Express, Ezokuthutha Eziningi Zomhlaba.
2. IRussia kanye ne-Asia Ephakathi
• Ukwanda kwesidingo se-ukushisa, izinto zikagesi, izimpahla zabathengi ezihamba ngokushesha.
• Izinga lokukhula15%+.
• Ngokuyinhlokoizitimela, imithwalo yendiza, ezokuthutha zomhlaba.
• Okubalulekile: Ukuthobela imithetho kanye nesitifiketi.
3. EMpumalanga Ephakathi
• Isidingo esinamandla seamandla amasha, ingqalasizinda, izinto zikagesi, izinto zikagesi.
• Izinga lokukhula10%–15%.
•Impahla yolwandle eqondile + indawo yokugcina impahla yaphesheya kwezilwandleukuze kube nokuncintisana okukhulu.
4. IYurophu (Imizila yaseMedithera / Asia-Europe)
• Ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe eYurophu kuya phezulu8.1%ezinyangeni zokuqala eziyi-11 zika-2025; ukululama kuyaqhubeka ngo-2026.
• Izigaba eziyinhloko:Amandla amasha, izinto zikagesi, imishini.
• Qaphela ukushintshashintsha kwemizila kanye nezindleko ezengeziwe;bhukha isikhala kusenesikhathi.
5. I-Afrika neLatin America
• Ukukhula okuphezulu kuizimoto, imishini, izinto zikagesi, izinto zokwakha.
• Ukukhula kwe-Afrika13.7%, I-Latin America9.8%.
• NgokuyinhlokoI-FCL, imvume yentela eyinkimbinkimbi.
• Ncomaizixazululo ze-logistics ezifika kanye.
6. I-United States
• Ukuvuselelwa kwengxenye engezansi kodwa ngokwesakhiwo ngaphansi kwengcindezi.
• Izinga lokukhula elibikezelwe cishe-5%ngo-2026.
• Gxila kuimikhiqizo enenani eliphezulu, ezwela ukuthobela imithetho.
• Okubalulekile kwezokuthutha:Imikhumbi esheshayo, ukulawulwa kwezinga lokushisa, ukulandeleka okuphezulu.
IV. Izikhumbuzo Eziyisihluthulelo Zokuthutha Nokuthunyelwa Kwe-Q1 ka-2026 (Okubalulekile Kochwepheshe Bezohwebo Lwangaphandle)
1. Isigqi Seholide Lomkhosi WaseNtwasahlobo
• Amafektri avalwa phakathi noFebhuwari, aqala kabusha ngasekupheleni kukaFebhuwari.
• Imizila yokuthumela, amachweba, intela ejikelezayo emsebenzini.
•Ingxenye yokuqala kaFebhuwari iwindi lokugcina lokuthumela eligxile kakhulu.
2. Isikhala kanye namanani
• Ngaphambi kweholide: Indawo encane emizileni yaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia / eMpumalanga Ephakathi.
• Ngemva kweholide: Ukululama okuphelele ngoMashi.
•Beka phambili indawo yokuvikela izinto ezintsha ezintathu / izinto zikagesi ezinenani eliphezulu.
3. Imigqa Ebomvu Yokuthobela Umthetho
•Amabhethri e-Lithium / ama-NEV: Ukupakishwa kwezimpahla eziyingozi, inombolo ye-UN, isimemezelo esifanayo — gwema ukugcinwa kwezitsha kanye nezinhlawulo.
•Izimpahla ze-e-commerce: Izimpawu zokuhweba zangaphambi kokuhlolwa, ukwephulwa komthetho, izitifiketi, izimfuneko zamasiko okuya kuwo.
4. Isu Elingazinzile
•Izigaba ezishintsha kakhulu: Gcina izimpahla zakwamanye amazwe ngaphambi kweholide, zilethwe ngqo ngemuva kweholide.
•Izimpahla eziningi / Izinkontileka zesikhathi eside: Bhukha isikhalaIzinsuku eziyi-10–15 kusengaphambili, gwema ukuminyana ngosuku lokuqala ubuyela emsebenzini.
Isifinyezo se-V.: Isiqalo Esiqinile sika-2026 — Gxila Emigqeni Emi-3 Eyinhloko
1. Imikhakha Ekhula Kakhulu Eqondiwe: Okusha Okuthathu, i-Electronics ICT, Imishini kanye Nokwakha Imikhumbi (Ukuqiniseka Okuphakeme Kakhulu)
2. Izimakethe Ezisafufusa Eziqondiwe: I-ASEAN, iRussia, iMpumalanga Ephakathi, i-Afrika (Ukukhula Okusheshayo)
3. Bamba Izinzuzo Zokuthutha: Vikela indawo ngaphambi kweholide, beka phambili ukuthobela imithetho, faka izindawo zokugcina impahla zaphesheya kwezilwandle, vumela ukubonakala kusukela ekuqaleni kuze kube sekupheleni
Unyaka Wehhashi usufikile. Ukukhetha izigaba zemikhiqizo efanele = ingxenye yempi enqotshiwe. Ukukhetha umlingani wezokuthutha ofanele = uhambo olungenazinkathazo.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Feb-28-2026